A hypothetical departure from Greece in the euro area would have a limited direct impact on neighboring countries but the indirect consequences could be severe, even for Italy and Spain warned the international rating agency Fitch Risk.
“While the Greek and Cypriot banks would be severely exposed, the direct impact on most of the other banks in the euro zone would be modest,” the agency said in a statement.
However, Fitch believes that the indirect impact “could be severe,” especially for countries demure and by the European Union (EU), Portugal and Ireland but also Italy and Spain.
The entities most affected would be those with branches in Greece, although the impact depends on how much funds have borders.
Analysts say the agency in his note, which summarizes a more comprehensive report, which “requires a strong response from policy makers to prevent contagion.”
“Fitch expects a strong public statement of commitment from the European Central Bank and policymakers in the euro area that will support if necessary,” they add.
“The desire to extend the credit line of 100,000 million euros to Spain to support its banks is a clear sign of the willingness of politicians to do what is necessary,” concludes Fitch, one of the three major rating agencies risks.
Analysts estimate that the 100,000 million for the Spanish banks “should help reduce some of contagion” because of a possible bank run in Portugal and Ireland.
In any thief, Fitch states that do not assume Greece output of the euro, but warns that the possible rise to power of a leftist populist government in the Hellenic country after the elections next Sunday, “has increased the risks for some banks. “