Central bankers will meet in the USA

The traditional meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole (Wyoming, northwest) focus the attention of financial markets on Friday its implications for monetary policy of both sides of the Atlantic.

It will be the first meeting in the meetings between the president of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, and President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi.

The meeting is dedicated this year to “assess trends in the labor market,” the central theme for Yellen who took office in 2014.

In fact, Wednesday extracts of the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Fed that evidence the division of its members on the level of “underutilization of the labor market” they met. Fewer and fewer members of the organization are in accordance with “the message of monetary stance” which provides low rates “for a considerable period of time.”

Yellen will speak on Friday at 14h00 GMT while Draghi will to 18:30 GMT. Analysts do not expect billboards. But they will be watching for any sign of rate hike in USA.

Yellen “could talk about monetary policy indirectly through an economic analysis that evokes the tensions on wages,” said the independent economist Joel Naroff.

Economists closely watch signs of rising wages in the United States, which could result in an increase in inflation leading to the Fed to raise rates.

Yellen should “give us some kind of timetable indicating how wage increases would be evident in the economy,” Naroff said.

Unemployment fell faster than expected by the Fed, currently 6.2%, but the economy is far from full employment.

For now, the FOMC repeated it expects to keep rates low “for a considerable period of time” and economists expect the first rate hike in mid-2015 when completed asset purchases made ​​by the organimo month to inject liquidity into the economy. That program should expire in October, at the current rate cuts bond purchases.

For analysts at Barclays Research, the head of the Fed should speak of “a gradual return to normal monetary policy” as opposed to the current, very expansive and ultra-low rates since 2008.

For Draghi, in a context of lack of growth in the Euro area, expect some easing measures by the central bank to stimulate the economy and fight deflation risks.

The ECB lowered its guidance in early June to a record low rate of 0.15 & and offered banks long-term loans to enable them to finance on favorable terms, so too has no ammunition available to sustain the recovery.

You have the option of unconventional measures, as a program of massive purchase of securities of public or private debt, similar to what the Fed did. But most analysts do not expect such measures before the end of the year.