ECB FOCUS-Europe rates to lead U.S. as global power shifts

* ECB hiking before Fed would be new in a tightening cycle

* Shows Asia’s increased influence on euro zone

* Fed likely to narrow rate gap with ECB later

By Paul Carrel

FRANKFURT, March 31 (Reuters) – After following the Federal
Reserve’s lead for over a decade, the European Central Bank is
poised to launch a series of interest rate hikes before the U.S.
central bank for the first time in the ECB’s history.

The change from the traditional pattern reflects the ECB’s
greater preoccupation with inflation pressures, as well as its
higher level of discomfort with the emergency bond-buying
programmes run by central banks.

But the “decoupling” of ECB and Fed policies is also the
result of an historic shift in the global economy: the increased
influence that Asia, rather than the United States, is having on
the euro zone’s economy.

“I think we are in a new world where global interest rate
cycles are not initiated by the Fed,” said Jens Sondergaard,
senior European economist at Nomura.

“There has been a lot of import price inflation pushing up
euro area inflation…and a lot of this is related to
above-trend growth in Asia.”

Sondergaard said monetary policy tightening already
initiated by central banks in emerging markets, including China,
was increasingly important for the rest of the world. China has
raised official interest rates three times and commercial banks’
reserve requirements five times since October.

ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi cited growth
in emerging economies as well as higher commodity prices when he
said in mid-March that inflation risks had increased.

He explicitly warned that the euro zone risked importing
inflation from China, where consumer prices have been rising at
an annual rate of around 5 percent. [ID:nLDE72D2I7]


For a graphic on Fed vs Bundesbank/ECB interest rates,

For a graphic on Bundesbank/ECB and inflation, click:



The ECB’s Governing Council holds a policy meeting next
Thursday and its members have been out in force signalling they
will raise rates, with council member Jozef Makuch saying this
week that a rise is “highly likely”. [ID:nLDE72S1P7]

An ECB rate hike would be the first since July 2008, when
the ECB raised rates in response to oil price-fuelled inflation
just ahead of the Lehman Brothers collapse which tipped the
global financial system into full-blown crisis.

The ECB has been widely criticised for the 2008 rise but the
bank’s president, Jean-Claude Trichet, deliberately referred to
it in January as a sign of his determination to fight inflation.

“They almost wear that as a badge of honour,” said RBS
economist Nick Matthews.

In its last full tightening cycle, begun in December 2005,
the ECB lagged the Fed in raising rates by 1-1/2 years. Its
cycle kicked in just as a recovery in Germany — the euro zone’s
largest economy — gained traction after a period of stagnation.

Now Germany is booming, buoyed by strength in its exporters,
whose business has been boosted by dynamic growth in China.

Consumer price inflation in the euro zone was 2.6 percent in
March, up from 2.4 percent in February and well above the ECB’s
target of close to but below 2 percent. In the United States,
the rate was 2.1 percent for February. [ID:nLDE72U14W]


Historically the Fed, which does not have a formal, explicit
inflation target, has been somewhat happier to accept higher
inflation than the 12-year-old ECB and Germany’s Bundesbank
before it.

Although the euro zone and the United States face similar
external inflation pressures, their central banks take a
different view of their economies. The Fed’s mandate requires it
to promote full employment in addition to keeping inflation in
check; the ECB’s focus is delivering price stability — a
reflection of its mandate, but also the legacy of the hawkish
Bundesbank, which the ECB carries in its DNA.

This ideological difference has existed throughout the ECB’s
life, but the new global environment of high commodity prices
and Asia-led economic growth may be causing the gap to widen.

This is suggested by the central banks’ approach to the
bond-buying schemes they adopted to fight financial crises. The
ECB has “sterilised” its purchases by taking an equal amount of
money in deposits, so the effect on the money supply is neutral,
and many of its policymakers are uncomfortable with its scheme.

While some Fed policymakers have recently suggested ending
their scheme early, the U.S. central bank has not sterilised
purchases and overall has appeared more comfortable with them.
This month the Fed reiterated a pledge to keep interest rates,
currently near zero, at very low levels for an extended period.

“They are happy enough to keep rates low and they are not
particularly agitated about the other roles they have taken on,”
Vanessa Rossi, senior research fellow at London-based think tank
Chatham House, said of the Fed.

“They are not pressing to quickly end these roles, whereas
in Europe it’s clear that the ECB has been uncomfortable with
unconventional policies and would like to get back to what it
considers normal.”

The divergence between the ECB and the Fed has produced
situations where the ECB seems to be publicly criticising the
U.S. central bank. In January Trichet declared central banks
should not focus on core inflation, which excludes food and
energy prices; the Fed has long looked at core inflation.


A Reuters poll of analysts published on Wednesday suggested
the ECB will raise rates when it meets next week and is set to
follow with a couple more hikes by the end of the year. By
contrast, the Fed is not expected to hike until 2012. [ECB/INT]

Many analysts expect it to close the interest rate gap with
the ECB when it eventually does start hiking, since weakness in
indebted economies on the periphery of the euro zone may
restrict the ECB’s room to tighten policy.

“Can you have a protracted decoupling of Fed and ECB
policies?” asked Matthews. “That’s probably unlikely.”

Nevertheless, the new balance in the global economy probably
means that in future, it will not be possible to assume the ECB
will follow the Fed in changing course on monetary policy. The
eventual recovery of peripheral euro zone economies from their
debt crises, perhaps in a few years, may reinforce this change.

(Editing by Andrew Torchia)

ECB FOCUS-Europe rates to lead U.S. as global power shifts