(Updates Australian Crop Forecasters estimate)
SYDNEY, April 6 (BestGrowthStock) – Australia, the world’s fourth
largest wheat exporter, could boost output of the grain in
2010/11 by nearly 4 percent from a year ago, thanks to good
rain ahead of planting, a private crop forecaster said on
Tuesday.
Australian Crop Forecasters said early indications pointed
to a 22.5 million tonnes harvest, up from the firm’s January
estimate of 21.7 million tonnes. The raised estimate follows
rain across key grain-growing areas.
Seeding winter crops such as wheat and canola usually
starts in late April with the harvest between October and late
January.
Estimates of Australia’s 2010/11 wheat crop from private and
government forecasters:
* Australian Crop Forecasters (private consultant)
Crop: 22.5 million tonnes
Issued: April 6
Next update: to be advised.
Methodology: Based on surveys of industry participants,
the group’s private database, physical inspections and
on-the-ground contacts.
* National Australia Bank
Crop: 22.6 million tonnes
Issued: Mar 26:
Next update: to be advised
Methodology: Based on information from the bank’s
regional agribusiness managers’ network and surveys with
regional industry participants and economists.
* U.S. Department of Agriculture Canberra attache
Crop: 22 million tonnes.
Issued: March 18
Next update: to be advised
Methodology: Field surveys, information from industry
sources, “all sources”.
* Commonwealth Bank of Australia
Crop: 20 million tonnes
Issued: March 4
Next update: to be advised
Methodology: Surveys of growers, bank staff in the field
and industry officials. Modelled yields based on observed
seasonal conditions plus medium term seasonal outlook.
* Rabobank Australia
Crop: 20 million tonnes
Issued: March 4
Next update: to be advised
Methodology: Based on a mix of analysis and anecdotal
information from a network of contacts through Rabobank’s
branches in Australia. Information is received from farmers on
planting expectations, with updates on yield expectations as
the season progresses.
* Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics
(government department)
Crop: 21.94 million tonnes.
Issued: March 2
Next Update: June 16
Methodology: Based on physical farm survey data,
information from bulk handlers and state agricultural
departments and computer modelling.
RECENT PRODUCTION
YEAR Million tonnes
2009/10 21.656 (ABARE)
2008/09 20.938
2007/08 13.039 (drought)
2006/07 10.641 (drought)
2005/06 25.173
2004/05 21.905
2003/04 26.132 (record)
2002/03 10.132 (drought)
2001/02 24.299
EXPORTS
YEAR Million tonnes
2009/10 13.874 (ABARE forecast)
2008/09 14.568
2007/08 7.444
2006/07 8.685
2005/06 15.969
2004/05 14.675
2003/04 17.867
2002/03 9.107
2001/02 16.317
KEY FACTS
– Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter,
with about 8 percent of world trade. Its major customer is
Indonesia.
The wheat export industry was liberalised in 2008 when a
monopoly held by AWB Ltd (AWB.AX: ), the former Australian Wheat
Board, was replaced with a system of licensed exporters.
AWB is one of the licensed exporters, competing with groups
such as Cargill Inc [CARG.UL], Louis Dreyfus, Glencore
International and Bunge.
Stock Market News
(Compiled by Bruce Hextall)
FACTBOX-Australian 2010/11 wheat crop forecasts
