Federal Reserve is directed to continue its gradual reduction of support to the U.S. economy

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed , the central bank ) should continue to reduce its liquidity in the economy after the meeting ends on Wednesday in connection with an improvement of local conditions and without yielding to possible complications in emerging markets .

The Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC ), chaired by Ben Bernanke at last , will make its public decision in a statement Wednesday. ” We expect the FOMC reduced the stimulus 10.000 million dollars,” said economists at Nomura Research department to coincide with that expected by most analysts.

Six weeks ago , based on an improvement in the labor market , the Fed began reducing its monetary support to the economy, which grew from 85,000 million to 75,000 million dollars a month , keeping interest rates at levels close to zero , as made from late 2008 , in a policy that promotes investment and job creation.

After meeting this week , the repurchase of assets would fall to 65,000 dollars a month , probably composed of 35,000 million in purchases of Treasuries and endorsed 30,000 million in securities to mortgage debt (MBS ), according to Nomura . Analysts do not expect disruptions in emerging markets to make the decision to change the U.S. central bank.

The currencies of Argentina , Turkey, Russia and South Africa , among others, have suffered sharp falls in recent days , in some cases linked specifically to the perspective of a policy tightening by the Fed ‘s outlook for lower bond buying Treasury by the Fed cause a flight of capital from emerging countries to a greenback appreciated . However, ” is in the central banks of these countries responding ( devaluation ) , not the Fed ,” summed Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. In this sense, for example , India Tuesday announced an increase of 0.25 % in its key rate , standing at 8% , and Turkey could take a similar step .

A retreat “premature monetary support should be avoided ” , recently warned the general director of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF) , Christine Lagarde, while stressing the obvious ” growth acceleration ” of the U.S. economy generated by domestic demand .

” The candidate of continuity”

The world’s largest economy showed signs indeed a consolidation of growth , despite the disappointing employment figures .

The latest ‘ Beige Book ‘ , an investigation into the state of the economy by the Fed and spanning a period of six weeks until early January, seemed more optimistic than previous editions , evoking “positive ” economic outlook , a ‘ sustained growth ” in manufacturing and consumer spending ” somewhat better than expected . ”

The report on the labor market in December was paradoxical. The number of jobs created was mediocre ( 74,000) , but the unemployment rate fell to 6.7% , close to the 6.5% limit to which the Fed promised to leave without changing interest rates .

However, many analysts, like Charles Plosser , president of the regional branch of the Philadelphia Fed and new voting member of the FOMC , estimated not to get “too many conclusions” of the low number of jobs created , because of in December exceptionally frigid temperatures may have contributed to this variable were recorded.

The FOMC meeting will be especially marked by the passage knob Bernanke , in office for eight years , Janet Yellen , the first woman to assume the presidency of the U.S. central bank. No press conference is expected to account for the event. “If there were changes in monetary policy will be minimal ,” predicted Paul Ashworth, of Capital Economics , for whom Yellen is ” the candidate of continuity.”

This first annual meeting of the FOMC will also see an extensively renovated body , with annual turnover of four between the presidents of the regional banks. From now on part in the vote Richard Fisher, the Dallas bank , and Charles Plosser of Philadelphia , both with a reputation for “hawks ” primarily concerned about inflation and Sandra Pianalto ( Cleveland ) and Narayana Kocherlakota ( Minneapolis) , the latter considered a ” dove ” , more concerned about unemployment.

The Fed should soon acquire a new vice president , a position he probably would fall to Stanley Fischer a former governor of the Central Bank of Israel and IMF number two nominated by U.S. President Barack Obama. His appointment depends on the ratification of Congress.