FOREX-Euro holds below recent peaks; Aussie dips before RBA

* Euro takes breather from recent rally

* Euro hovers below resistance at $1.4283 Nov peak

* Aussie dips on profit-taking; awaits RBA

* Aussie positioning suggests some downside risk-trader

By Natsuko Waki

TOKYO, April 5 (Reuters) – The euro hovered below a
five-month high against the dollar and an 11-month peak versus
the yen on Tuesday as investors assessed whether it can make
fresh gains given that expectations of interest rate rises have
been largely priced in.

The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by a
quarter point from a record low of 1 percent at a meeting on
Thursday to rein in inflationary pressures, with two more 25
basis point hikes priced in by year-end .

But the single currency has already risen more than 6
percent against the dollar and more than 10 percent versus the
yen this year, making investors reluctant to buy more ahead of
the meeting this week.

The euro’s rally has stalled right below resistance at its
November high of $1.4283. That level is also crucial as it
roughly coincides with trendline resistance drawn from the
euro’s record high set in July 2008.

“For the ECB, an April interest rate hike is a done deal and
one or two more hikes are priced in. It’s hard to see a positive
surprise from here,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist
at Barclays Bank.

“Still, the euro zone would be the first to raise interest
rates, which supports the euro. Expectations for diversification
flows from higher oil prices are also positive. There is also a
risk that the Fed minutes may show a hawkish tone.”

The euro fell 0.2 percent from late U.S. trade on Monday to
$1.4188 , pulling away from a five-month high of $1.4269
hit on Monday on trading platform EBS.

A rise above its November peak of $1.4283 could open the way
to $1.4374, the 76.4 percent retracement of the euro’s slide
from November 2009 to June 2010. Support is seen at $1.4190,
with traders citing stops through to below $1.4150.

The euro edged up 0.1 percent against the yen to 119.63 yen
, close to its 11-month peak of 120.073 yen hit on

The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 84.32 yen , edging
closer to a six-month peak of 84.735 yen set on Friday. A
200-day moving average at around 83.55 is now seen acting as


The Australian dollar dipped 0.4 percent to $1.0323
, pressured by profit-taking in the wake of its rise to
a 29-year high of $1.0422 the previous day. There was talk of
both bids and stop-loss offers around $1.0300.

Investors were awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s
policy decision and statement later on Tuesday. The central bank
is seen likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75 percent,
given scant signs of a pick up in underlying inflation.

A trader for a Japanese brokerage said market positioning
was tilted toward being long the Aussie dollar following its
recent rally, pointing to the potential for some downside risk.

Later on Tuesday, focus will turn to the Fed minutes for
more hints on the Fed’s policy outlook.

Underscoring the market’s focus on Fed speakers, the dollar
edged higher against the yen and the euro earlier on Tuesday,
following comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben

Currency traders, however, said that the move in the dollar
likely was due to the market having been short the dollar rather
than anything else.

Bernanke said a recent pick-up in U.S. inflation was driven
primarily by rising commodity prices globally, but added that
was unlikely to persist. [ID:nN04294041]

After a string of hawkish comments from Fed officials, some
U.S. central bankers have struck a more cautious tone.

On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said U.S.
inflation was likely to remain moderate and St.
Louis Fed Research Director Christopher Waller said the Fed was
likely to buy all the bonds it has said it would purchase by
June 30. [ID:nN04277975]

Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve
Bank, told CNBC on Monday the Fed’s programme is most likely an
“adequate” size. [ID:nWEN0460]

“It is becoming increasingly evident (there is) a divergence
in opinions among Fed members. These different opinions among
Fed members may seep into the FOMC minutes later today,” BNP
Paribas said in a note to clients.

“This may be interpreted as hawkish, but we expect the Fed
to stand pat especially since we expect incoming data through Q2
to be on the weaker side.”

(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano in Singapore; Editing
by Kim Coghill)

FOREX-Euro holds below recent peaks; Aussie dips before RBA