FOREX-Euro rises, better risk sentiment hits shorts

* Euro (EUR=: ) rises above $1.22 as Asian equities rally

* Rally is risk-driven; Aussie/dlr hits 1-month high

* Obama stimulus plans could undermine dollar

(Adds comment, changes lead; previous TOKYO)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, June 14 (BestGrowthStock) – The euro rose on Monday as an
improvement in sentiment towards riskier assets hit the dollar
and prompted a bout of short-covering in the single European
currency, lifting it further away from a recent four-year low.

But analysts said the recovery in the euro was unlikely to
push it out of its downtrend, as the structural problems in the
euro zone which had plagued the currency had not altered.

“We’ve seen a good session for equities overnight. This
looks to be a pro-risk move, driven by the higher-yielding
currencies such as the Aussie. Fundamentally, nothing has
changed for the euro,” said Kenneth Broux, market economist at
Lloyds Banking Group.

At 0728 GMT, the euro (EUR=: ) was up around 0.6 percent
versus the dollar at $1.2180, having traded as high as $1.2208
on trading platform EBS.

Traders said hedge funds had been seen cutting out of short
positions on a break of the $1.2150/60 area in Asia. They
highlighted resistance for the euro at $1.2234, the 21-day
moving average. The euro has traded below the 21-day since
mid-September 2009.

Technical analysts also highlighted resistance at $1.2330
and $1.2445, the 2008 and 2009 lows.

The euro has lost 15 percent against the dollar this year
but managed to gain 1.6 percent last week as it pulled up from a
four-year low at $1.1876.

European Union leaders meet on Thursday and are expected to
make a new attempt to convince markets they can contain debt
problems by agreeing how to tighten economic policy coordination
and strengthen budget discipline. [ID:nLDE65C0FB]


Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed speculators
boosted their bets against the euro in the week ended June 8,
although net short positions were below record levels. [IMM/FX]

With the market still very short euros, Sue Trinh, a senior
FX strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, did not rule
out a push up as far as $1.24-$1.25 within its downtrend.

“If the moves continue then we could start running into
systematic-type stops for the likes of euro/dollar and the DXY
(dollar) more generally,” she said.

The Australian dollar topped $0.8560, its highest in a
month. Resistance was seen at $0.8570-80, stemming from a low in
February and a 38.2 percent retracement of its April-May drop.

The Aussie also gained 0.6 percent on the low-yielding yen,
which was soft across the board, to 78.70 yen (AUDJPY=R: ),
touching its highest in nearly four weeks.

The euro rose around 1 percent to trade above 112 yen for
the first time in a week. The rise in the yen crosses allowed
the dollar to make a brief show above 92 yen (JPY=: ).

The dollar was down around 0.7 percent versus a currency
basket (.DXY: ) at 86.880. Analysts said the greenback could be
undermined by U.S. President Barack Obama and his aides calling
for more economic stimulus to support the economy.

“With the market focusing on public finances, this
politically motivated move could put the dollar under pressure
going forward,” said Broux at Lloyds.

A top White House adviser said on Sunday the administration
wanted to speed up job creation.

Stock Market Research

(Additional reporting by Charlotte Cooper, editing by Nigel

FOREX-Euro rises, better risk sentiment hits shorts