Global drug sales to top $1 trillion in 2014 -IMS

* Global market seen growing $300 billion over next 5 yrs

* Worldwide prescription drugs growth of 4-6 pct in 2010

* Emerging markets seen growing 14-17 pct through 2014

* Major developed markets seen growing 3-6 pct through ’14

By Bill Berkrot

NEW YORK, April 20 (BestGrowthStock) – Global pharmaceutical sales
are expected to reach $1.1 trillion in 2014 as growth in
emerging markets helps offset the impact of generic competition
for many of the world’s top selling drugs, according to a
forecast by IMS Health.

The 5 percent to 8 percent compound annual growth rate for
prescription drugs expected over the next five years translates
into sales growth of nearly $300 billion, IMS said.

“What’s a little surprising is how robust we expect the
growth to be notwithstanding we’re going to be passing through
the peak years of loss of (patent) exclusivity,” Murray Aitken,
senior vice president of IMS Healthcare Insight, said in an
interview.

“That really is a reflection of how much the global market
has moved away from dependence on five or six major developed
markets,” Aitken said.

Worldwide pharmaceutical sales growth of 4 to 6 percent is
expected this year, which is in line with the previous forecast
by IMS, a leading provider of prescription drug data. But that
represents a decline from the 7 percent growth to $837 billion
seen in 2009.

Factors contributing to slower growth in 2010 are a larger
impact from U.S. patent expirations, price cuts in Japan — the
world’s second-largest market — which will bring growth there
down to 0 to 2 percent from 7 percent growth in 2009, and the
effect in Europe of publicly funded healthcare budgets being
cut, Aitken explained.

Products with sales of more than $142 billion are expected
to face generic competition in major markets over the next five
years, reducing prescription drug spending by $80 billion to
$100 billion through 2014.

Patent expirations in the United States will peak in 2011
and 2012, when six of the 10 current largest-selling products
are expected to face generic competition, including the top
two: Pfizer Inc’s (PFE.N: ) cholesterol fighter Lipitor and the
blood clot preventer Plavix, sold by Bristol-Myers Squibb Co
(BMY.N: ) and Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA: ).

Branded drugs quickly lose some 90 percent of sales when
faced with competition from much cheaper generic versions.

Somewhat offsetting the pinch from generic competition will
be the double-digit sales growth expected in emerging markets.

Drug sales in emerging markets, led by China and Brazil,
are expected to grow at a 14 to 17 percent pace through 2014,
compared with a 3 to 6 percent growth rate seen for developed
markets, IMS said.

Total sales in emerging markets through 2014 are expected
to be about $120 billion to $140 billion, compared with sales
of $69 billion over the past five years.

“China remains in league of its own with 22 to 25 percent
annual growth through 2014. That works out to be absolute
growth of about $60 billion to $80 billion,” Aitken said.
“Brazil is second-largest at 12 to 15 percent growth.”

Despite an anemic 3-6 percent growth rate, the United
States will remain the world’s largest market for prescription
medicines with sales reaching $360 billion to $390 billion in
2014, up from $300 billion last year, IMS said.

As generic options dominate chronic therapeutic areas such
as cholesterol control, antipsychotics, and acid reflux and
ulcer preventers, drugmakers will turn their research budgets
toward therapy areas where higher cost drugs tackle diseases
with high levels of unmet need, such as cancer, multiple
sclerosis and diabetes, IMS predicted.

But, IMS cautioned, some of those expensive new drugs may
meet with resistance from payers in many countries, with more
rigorous and complex assessments likely before they are
accepted into clinical practice and reimbursed.

That is expected to extend the time it takes for new
medicines to become available to patients, and may contribute
to lower initial spending by payers, IMS said.

“The expected global economic recovery removes an element
of uncertainty for the industry over the next five years,
although the way payers address lingering budget deficits will
remain an issue in many markets,” Aitken said.

That said, “this will be a trillion dollar-plus market in
2014 as patient demand for pharmaceuticals remains as strong as
ever and stronger than ever in the emerging markets,” he said.
(Reporting by Bill Berkrot, editing by Matthew Lewis)

Global drug sales to top $1 trillion in 2014 -IMS