IFR Preview-declines seen in home prices, confidence

WHAT: Standard & Poors Case-Shiller home price index, January
WHEN: Tuesday 0900 EDT (1300 GMT)
FORECASTS (pct)          Reuters     IFR     Previous
20 months year/year      -3.2        -3.4    -2.4
20 months, adjusted      -0.4        -0.5    -0.4
20 months, unadjusted    -1.0        -1.4    -1.0
IFR COMMENTARY: "January's S+P Case-Shiller house price index
is unlikely to show any fading of the recent tendency for
weakness, falling to -3.4% yr/yr from -2.4% in December. This
would be an eighth straight slowing in the yr/yr pace since May
2010 data reached 4.64% on a tax credit for buyers that was
then expiring. Price data released with the existing home sales
report was very weak in January (and deteriorated still further
in February), while the January FHFA house price index extended
its post-tax credit decline in January. While the latter's
January decline was less steep than December's there is no
evidence that the downtrend is losing momentum. On a seasonally
adjusted monthly basis the S&P Case-Shiller index should fall
by 0.5%, similar to falls of 0.4% in December and 0.6% in
November. Before seasonal adjustment a fall of 1.4% should be
seen, which would be the sharpest unadjusted monthly decline
since March 2009."
WHAT: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, March
WHEN: Tuesday 1000 EDT (1400 GMT)
FORECASTS           Reuters     IFR     Previous
CCI                 65.0        60.0    70.4
IFR COMMENTARY: "The Conference Board's consumer confidence
should fall to 60.0 in March from 70.4 in February, dragging it
back to its lowest since November. Higher gasoline prices will
be the main concern though slippage in equities in the wake of
the Japanese earthquake will be an additional negative. A
comparable situation occurred in September 2005, when a sharp
spike in gasoline prices and the disaster of Hurricane Katrina
hit confidence, with the index plunging by 18 points to 87.5.
This time the gasoline price hike has not been quite as sharp,
and it is reasonable to assume a disaster overseas will hit
confidence less than a disaster in the US, particularly one
like Hurricane Katrina which caused heavy job losses. Still, US
consumer sentiment is vulnerable after a recent recovery, and
data from IBD/TIPP and the Michigan CSI suggests the monthly
decline will be not far off what was seen in September 2005.
While the Conference Board data may get more support from
recent employment gains, and prove less sensitive to inflation
than the other two indices, a substantial fall can be expected.
Expectations should fall by 15.1 points to 80.0 while the
present situation should slip by a more modest 3.4 points to
30.0. The one year inflation expectation should bounce to 6.5%
from 5.6%. In September 2005 it rose to 6.8% from 5.1%."
 For more Reuters consensus forecasts for U.S. indicators,
double-click on [ECI/US]
 -- by David Sloan of IFR Markets, a unit of Thomson
Reuters.


IFR Preview-declines seen in home prices, confidence