Instant View: Reaction to Irish banking plan

LONDON (Reuters) – Ireland said its four remaining banks require another 24 billion euros ($34.1 billion) to enable them to withstand potential losses from a worsening of the economy.

RAY KINSELLA, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY COLLEGE DUBLIN, BUSINESS SCHOOL

“There are three points that are significant. Firstly the amount of capital envisaged is significantly greater than envisaged in the IMF/EU bailout.

“Will this be enough? The whole narrative of this banking crisis shows responses are consistently behind events.”

“The real question is whether or not we see a sharp decline in the spreads over German rates. That should have happened and it hasn’t.”

“This can only be resolved within the eurozone and the failure of the eurozone to accept their share of the crisis might send Ireland to an unwanted default during the lifetime of this program.”

“That is what the very high level of insuring against Irish default is telling us. Failure by the EU and individual countries from Germany to Finland may well precipitate a default event.”

STEPHEN KINSELLA, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, UNIVERSITY OF LIMERICK

“In my opinion these will not be enough simply because the markets has already priced in this money, this kind of capital injection by the government because it is part of the EU/IMF program.”

“So this is simply an extension of the funding mechanism that has already been approved by EU/IMF of the figures already approved. There is no new money if you like going into these banks, this is the fifth recapitalization of the banks and it’s highly unlikely that this will draw a line in the sand.”

“They are credible in the sense that the people who have put them together are credible, but I just think the banks will need more money.”

ION-MARC VALAHU, FUND MANAGER AT SWISS FIRM CLAIRINVEST:

“It’s a little better than expected, since many people were expecting they would need another 27.5 billion. But it will still take years to get the money back which has been paid out to those banks.”

AUSTIN HUGHES, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KBC BANK

“The numbers are much as expected. They show the problems in very clear relief.

“The key question now is what measures are undertaken and in that respect we need to see the finance minister’s comments that are just coming across the wires now. Also, we need to see the response from Europe.

“We’re clear about the size of the hole, now let’s see how it is filled.”

PHILIP LANE, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS

“In line with expectations to have a number like 24 billion euros, so it is important going back to the November IMF/EU deal it allowed a contingency of up to 35 billion.

“The fact that they have independently monitored stress tests…it’s of course bad news for the Irish taxpayer but it’s not bad news in the sense that it is in line with expectations to have that kind of number.

“The range of variation about where the Irish economy is going is wider than these stress tests. The market still remains concerned about the level of sovereign debt.”

“So long as there remains uncertainty… the banking system still has that problem to deal with.”

PETER CHATWELL, RATE STRATEGIST, CREDIT AGRICOLE, LONDON

“That’s the range that we were expecting to be in, toward upper end of expectations, so no major surprise. They need a lot more capital but nothing that can’t be squeezed out of the existing facility…I don’t think this adds anything to the market right now.”

MICHAEL HEWSON, MARKET ANALYST AT CMC MARKETS, LONDON

“It is going to be very, very difficult for those banks to raise the capital required and at some point a restructuring conversation needs to happen. We’ll probably see a ratings downgrade on the back of this by the ratings agencies.”

“We saw equity markets suddenly slide very rapidly toward the close with the banking sector slipping back quite considerably. What we have seen in the closing auction (in the FTSE 100) is an early indication of what the market thinks of it.”

MARK ROBERTS, BANKS SPECIALIST SALES, SOCIETE GENERALE

“It (24 billion) appears to be at the lower end of expectations, but the question remains, will the market think this is enough and what will the potential knock-on effects be across Europe?”

ALAN McQUAID, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BLOXHAM STOCKBROKERS, DUBLIN

“The 24 (billion euros) figure is pretty much in the realms of what people were saying.”

“The good news is that it’s less than the government has set aside, but that is probably going to be offset by ratings downgrades so I don’t expect much market impact from this.

PADHRAIC GARVEY, RATES STRATEGIST, ING

“The figures are little bit higher than the market was expecting but there are no major shocks. It means the total bank recapitalization is likely to come in at around 70 billion euros.”

“The figure for AIB looks on the high side but it is not wildly different from what people were expecting.”

Instant View: Reaction to Irish banking plan