PREVIEW-Argentina April trade surplus seen falling 28 pct

WHAT: Argentina trade balance in April (ARTBAL=ECI: )

WHEN: Friday, May 21, at 4 p.m. local time (1900 GMT)

REUTERS FORECAST: $1.65 billion surplus, down 28 percent
from year earlier, according to the median forecast. Eleven
analysts participated in the survey with estimates ranging from
$890 million to $2 billion

FACTORS TO WATCH: Argentina’s trade surplus is seen
shrinking from a year earlier as imports rebound sharply from
last year’s slowdown. Exports are seen as robust thanks to a
record soy harvest and booming automotive sales to Brazil,
although an ongoing trade dispute with China has hurt soyoil
exports.

The $2.3 billion surplus logged in April 2009 was
exceptionally large as Argentina’s weak currency spurred
exports and imports fell amid a global downturn.

MARKET IMPACT: A healthy reading would improve the outlook
for Argentina’s finances after the country’s trade surplus
shrank 77 percent in March to $311 million. The government has
acted to protect local industry and reduce imports to safeguard
the trade surplus, one of the pillars of its economic model.
But this could backfire if its prompts retaliation.

LINKS:

Argentina’s bureau of statistics website:
http://www.indec.gov.ar/

For historical Argentine statistical data in Spanish,
please see pages (ARECI09: ) through (ARECI14: )

To see a calendar of Argentine economic indicators please
click on (ECONAR: ) or type in ECONAR on a quote page and press
enter.

For separate pages detailing Argentine analysts’ economic
forecasts, click on: (ARECI05: ) (ARECI06: ) (ARECI07: ) (ARECI08: )

Stock Market Advice

(Reporting by Jorge Otaola and Hilary Burke)

PREVIEW-Argentina April trade surplus seen falling 28 pct