PREVIEW-Canada seen adding 30,000 jobs in August

WHAT: Canadian August employment report

WHEN: Friday, Sept. 10 at 7 a.m. (1100 GMT)

REUTERS FORECAST:

(ECONCA: )

Aug F’cast range prior (July)

Jobs gain/loss +30.0K -15K to +50K -9.3K

Unemployment rate 8.0 pct 7.9-8.1 pct 8.0 pct

For individual forecasts see: [ID: ECICA]

FACTORS TO WATCH:

Recovery: After losing jobs for the first time this year in
July, the August figures are expected to show that hiring is
back on track. Economic growth has slowed, as shown in the
final reading of GDP for the second quarter recently, but
Canada’s employment machine is still churning out jobs.

A gain in August would be the seventh month of job creation
in eight months, underscoring the economy’s quicker and sharper
than expected rebound from recession.

Private sector: The question is whether job creation has
shifted into the private sector. If so, it would suggest the
recovery is self-sustaining and is not relying heavily on
government stimulus.

Education: This sector should bounce back this month after
it lost a stunning 65,300 jobs in July, which analysts said was
both “mythical” and likely a Statistics Canada’s struggle with
seasonal adjustments in the category. The sector has usually at
least partially reversed its losses in August.

MARKET IMPACT:

The jobs report will come out two days after the Bank of
Canada’s latest interest rate decision so it will feed into the
bank’s October decision. Rate-increase expectations for the
rest of the year have been recently reduced due to softer
economic figures in Canada as well as in the United States,
Canada’s biggest trading partner. Most dealers and global
strategists now forecast the central bank will stand pat on
rates for the rest of the year after raising its key rate by a
quarter point to 1 percent on Sept. 8. (BOCWATCH: ) [CA/POLL]

Stronger-than-forecast jobs growth would help lighten
concern of slower growth, and would support the Canadian
dollar. An unexpectedly large decline in hiring would likely
lead to a selloff in the Canadian dollar and boost bond prices
as the likelihood of a further rate increase lessens.
(Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; editing by Peter Galloway)

PREVIEW-Canada seen adding 30,000 jobs in August