PREVIEW-China Jan imports, exports to surge on low base

* WHAT: Chinese trade data for January

* WHEN: Feb 10. No fixed time

* REUTERS FORECASTS:

(Exports and imports in pct chg y/y, surplus in $ billions)

NO.
OF

MEDIAN RANGE DEC/09 JAN/09
FORECASTS

Exports 22.5 12.0/44.0 17.7 -17.5
25

Imports 85.6 46.1/105.0 55.9 -43.1
25

Trade surplus 19.5 8.0/33.0 18.4 39.1
24

* FACTORS TO WATCH:

China’s imports are expected to have soared in year-on-year
terms, mainly because of a low base of comparison. The
financial crisis took a toll on global trade in January 2009,
which was amplified in China by the fall of Lunar New Year
holiday in the month.

Given such distortions, analysts will also be scrutinising
the month-on-month change. Based on the median forecast of 22
economists, Reuters calculates that imports shrank about 17
percent in January from a record $112.3 billion in December.

Similarly, the median forecast of the poll points to a 15
percent month-on-month drop in exports. That might keep Beijing
prudent about the outlook for exports and the global recovery,
stiffening its resistance to outside pressure to let the yuan
rise.

* MARKET IMPACT:

Weaker-than-expected export growth might paradoxically be
positive for the stock market, as jittery investors would price
in a delay in further policy tightening, including a resumption
of the yuan’s appreciation.

Stronger export growth, by contrast, could harden
speculation that a rise in the exchange rate was only a matter
of time, especially as the United States is ratcheting up
pressure on the issue. [ID:nTOE61205X]

For China’s trade figures in December. [ID:nTOE60900L]

All China economic data (CN/DATA: )

Surplus Exp Imp
Action Economics 8.0 22.5 100.5
ANZ 21.7 36.1 85.6
Bank of China 21.0 19.0 48.0
Bank of Communications 20.0 32.0 94.0
BNP 10.4 25.0 100.0
China Construction Bank 15.0 30.0 100.0
Capital Economics 13.8 22.0 87.0
CICC 14.9 30.0 100.0
CITIC Securities 29.2 15.2 46.1
DBS ~ 32.7 88.0
Essence Securities 24.0 22.0 67.0
Fortune Trust 20.0 30.0 90.0
Galaxy Securities 31.0 20.0 60.0
Goldman Sachs 18.7 20.0 75.0
Guotai Junan Securities 21.0 20.0 70.0
Industrial Bank 19.0 20.7 76.1
Industrial Securities 16.6 13.9 68.2
ING 20.4 31.5 92.0
Morgan Stanley 20.2 21.6 75.0
Orient Securities 17.8 23.0 90.0
Qilu Securities 16.0 12.0 78.0
Shanghai Securities 18.0 30.5 94.8
Standard Chartered 25.0 44.0 105.0
Shenyin & Wanguo Securities 14.0 15.6 70.6
UBS 33.0 30.0 65.0
—————————————————-
MEDIAN 19.5 22.5 85.6
PREVIOUS MONTH 18.4 17.7 55.9
PREVIOUS YEAR 39.1 -17.5 -43.1

Investing Research

(Reporting by Beijing Economics Team; Editing by Neil
Fullick)

PREVIEW-China Jan imports, exports to surge on low base