PREVIEW-China on course for another hefty trade surplus

WHAT: Chinese trade data for October

WHEN: Wednesday, Nov 10; no fixed time

REUTERS FORECASTS:

(Exports and imports in pct chg y/y, trade balance in $bln)

POLL

MEDIAN RANGE SEP/10 OCT/09 SIZE
Exports 23.5 19.0/29.7 25.1 -13.8 29
Imports 28.5 21.0/43.9 24.1 -6.4 29
Trade balance 25.0 9.2/31.4 16.9 24.0 30

FACTORS TO WATCH:

The focus will be on import growth as investors have
increasingly come to look at this as an important indicator of
China’s economic vigour.

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published on Oct. 1
showed growth of domestic orders far outstripped that of export
orders in October, suggesting the gap between import and export
growth may be even bigger than the poll results suggest.

MARKET IMPACT:

Another hefty trade surplus in China will add political
pressure for the yuan to rise faster. Trade imbalances and
currency controls will be in the spotlight as global leaders
gather next week in Seoul for the G20 Summit.

A strong import figure, reflecting China’s buoyant economy,
could provide a boost to the country’s stock market, which has
traded in a tight range since the central bank raised interest
rates last month.

Trade balance Exports
Imports
Bank of Communications 23.1 24.1
30.8
BNP Paribas 27.0 23.7
26.8
BoA Merrill Lynch 18.0 22.9
35.9
BOC International Securities 25.0 21.0
25.0
Bocom International 25.0 24.5
29.0
Bohai Securities 23.0 23.0
28.9
CEBM 20.9 20.0
29.0
China Merchants Bank 14.0 25.6
43.9
CICC 24.8 23.0
28.5
CITIC Securities 21.1 24.4
34.2
Deutsche Bank 26.0 21.0
24.0
Donghai Securities 12.5 23.5
23.8
Essence Securities 19.2 29.7
43.4
Fortune Trust 25.0 24.0
29.0
Guosen Securities 26.4 22.0
25.0
Guotai Jun’an Securities 31.4 24.2
22.3
Hang Seng Bank 27.7 23.0
25.0
HSBC 27.0 23.5
26.5
Huarong Securities 18.9 26.3
25.3
Industrial Bank 9.2 19.3
40.0
Industrial Securities 29.0 22.0
22.5
ING 28.0 24.0
26.0
ISI Group 26.1 23.1
26.9
Minsheng Securities 26.0 27.0
32.0
Moody’s Analytics 20.0 n/a n/a
Qilu Securities 27.3 25.0
28.0
Sealand Securities 20.0 20.0
30.0
Shanghai Securities 18.0 24.6
38.3
Shenyin Wanguo Securities 26.2 24.9
29.3
UBS 26.5 19.0 21.0

* For China’s September trade data, click [ID:nBJB003965]

* China’s indicator fixed page: (ECONCN: )

* All Chinese economic data: (CN/DATA: )

* For a preview of Oct loans data, click [ID:nTOE6A304J]

* For a preview of Oct inflation and industrial output,
click [ID:nTOE6A305I]

* To read more previews on major Chinese economic data over
the coming weeks, click [PRE-CN-MCE]
(Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Writing by Langi Chiang;
Editing by Sugita Katyal)

PREVIEW-China on course for another hefty trade surplus