PREVIEW-China’s Oct CPI may point to another rate hike

* WHAT: China Oct data from the National Bureau of
Statistics

* WHEN: likely to be Thursday, Nov. 11 at 0200 GMT

REUTERS FORECASTS: (all expressed as pct chg y/y) POLL

MEDIAN RANGE SEP/10 OCT/09
SIZE
CPI 4.0 3.6/4.2 3.6 -0.5
30
PPI 4.6 4.0/5.5 4.3 -5.8
29
Ind. Production 13.5 12.5/15.0 13.3 16.1
30
Retail Sales 18.7 18.3/19.8 18.8 16.2
30
Urban FAI (ytd) 24.3 23.0/25.0 24.5 33.1 29

* FACTORS TO WATCH:

Rising food costs at home and capital inflows from abroad,
particularly from a rebound in China’s trade surplus, are set
to push inflation higher. Factory-gate prices may also have
accelerated along with higher global commodity prices, while
growth of industrial production, retail sales and investment
are likely to be little changed from September.

All eyes will be on consumer prices to gauge Beijing’s
next policy move after its surprise interest rate increase last
month. If consumer prices rose 4.0 percent in the year to
October, as the poll results suggest, it will fan speculation
of another rate rise soon.

* MARKET IMPACT:

A strong CPI, although an indicator of policy tightening,
may in fact push up domestic stock prices, because it could
encourage residents to transfer money from their bank accounts
to the market as a way to avoid negative returns on their
deposit accounts.

Stable growth in output and investment would help boost
confidence that China’s economy (Read more about the fastest growing economy.) is on track for a healthy
expansion, providing steady if not spectacular support to
commodity prices.

Detailed forecasts:

CPI PPI IP RS
FAI
Bank of Communications 4.1 4.6 13.5 18.6
24.3
BNP Paribas 4.0 4.6 13.9 18.6
24.2
BoA Merrill Lynch 4.0 4.6 13.2 18.6
24.3
BOC International 4.1 4.6 13.0 18.3
24.0
Bocom International 4.0 5.0 14.0 19.0
24.3
Bohai Securities 3.9 4.5 13.5 18.9
24.5
CEBM 4.2 4.6 13.0 18.3
24.5
China Merchants Bank 4.0 5.0 14.0 18.9
24.4
CICC 4.0 4.5 12.6 19.1
24.6
CITIC Securities 4.0 4.5 13.6 18.8
24.6
Deutsche Bank 4.1 5.2 12.9 18.7
24.3
Donghai Securities 3.8 4.6 13.7 18.7
24.0
Essence Securities 4.2 4.7 13.5 18.9
24.1
Fortune Trust 4.0 4.6 13.5 19.0
24.5
Guosen Securities 3.6 5.5 13.5 18.5
23.0
Guotai Jun’an Securities 3.9 4.5 13.4 18.6
na
Hang Seng Bank 3.8 na 13.0 18.6
24.3
HSBC 4.0 4.5 13.8 18.7
24.3
Huarong Securities 3.8 4.0 13.8 19.2
24.2
Industrial Bank 4.2 5.0 12.7 19.1
24.4
Industrial Securities 4.0 4.5 13.0 18.5
23.0
ING 3.8 4.6 14.0 18.5
24.3
ISI Group 4.2 4.5 13.8 18.7
25.0
Minsheng Securities 4.0 4.5 12.5 18.6
24.0
Moody’s Analytics 3.7 4.4 13.3 19.3
24.3
Qilu Securities 3.8 4.6 15.0 18.6
24.6
Sealand Securities 4.0 4.5 13.2 19.0
24.3
Shanghai Securities 4.0 4.7 13.7 19.8
24.7
Shenyin Wanguo Securities 4.0 4.6 12.8 18.7
24.4
UBS 4.0 5.4 12.5 18.5 24.5

* For China’s Sept data: [ID:nBJL002077]

* China indicator fixed page: (ECONCN: )

* All Chinese economic data [CN/DATA]
(Reporting by Beijing economics team; Writing by Zhou Xin;
Editing by Ken Wills and Sugita Katyal)

PREVIEW-China’s Oct CPI may point to another rate hike