PREVIEW-Japan Q4 GDP seen +1.0 pct q/q, +4.1 pct annualised

(Repeats March 4 item)
(For more stories on the Japanese economy, click [ID:nECONJP])

* WHAT: Japan revised fourth-quarter GDP

* WHEN: 8:50 a.m., March 11 (2350 GMT, March 10)

* REUTERS FORECAST: Median +1.0 pct qtr/qtr vs initial
estimate +1.1 pct qtr/qtr

By Akiko Takeda

TOKYO, March 4 (BestGrowthStock) – The Japanese economy likely grew
slightly less in October-December than the government’s initial
estimate due to a slower recovery in capital spending, a Reuters
poll of economists showed on Thursday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter likely
rose 1.0 pct, down from a preliminary 1.1 percent, based on the
median estimate of economists polled after the Ministry of
Finance said the fall in Japanese companies’ spending on plant
and equipment slowed in that quarter.

On an annualised basis, the median forecast of 23 economists
polled is for a revised 4.1 percent expansion in the economy,
dwon from 4.6 percent in preliminary data released on Feb 15.

The data may provide little comfort to the government,
though, which faces waning public support due to political
funding scandals before upper house elections expected in July.

“Capital spending has been disappointingly slow to recover.
Companies will remain cautious at least until the end of this
financial year (in March),” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist
at Shinkin Central Bank.

Economists expect capital spending to be revised down to a
rise of 0.3 percent from a preliminary estimate of 1.0 percent,
which was first rise in seven quarters.

In the MOF survey published on Thursday, capital spending for
companies of all categories fell 17.3 percent in October-December
from a year earlier, slower than a 24.8 percent annual decline in
July-September. [JPBUSX=ECI]

Japan pulled out of recession in April-June, helped by a
rebound in exports and industrial output as well as a rise in
consumption on the back of the government’s stimulus package.

But economists expect growth to slow early this year, as the
boost from the government’s stimulus package will peter out.

“We expect the economy to hit a soft patch in the early half
of this year. Because wages are not growing, consumption will not
grow. The economy won’t have an engine,” said Tsunoda of Shinkin
Asset.

Following are economists’ forecasts for the revised
October-December GDP data:
—————————————————————-
OCT-DEC CAPEX INVENTORY GDP GDP

CONTRIB ANNUALISED
—————————————————————-
median 0.3 0.1 1.0 4.1
high 1.3 0.3 1.2 4.9
low -1.1 -0.2 0.7 3.0
—————————————————————-
BNP Paribas 0.3 -0.2 0.7 3.0
Mitsubishi Research -0.4 0.0 0.9 3.5
Deutsche Securities -0.9 n/a 0.9 3.6
Credit Agricole CIB 0.3 0.0 0.9 3.8
Japan Research -0.1 0.0 0.9 3.8
Nomura Securities 0.9 -0.1 0.9 3.8
RBS -0.2 0.1 1.0 3.9
Itochu Corp. 0.6 0.0 1.0 3.9
Citigroup -1.1 0.2 1.0 3.9
Barclays Capital 0.1 0.1 1.0 4.0
JP Morgan -0.3 0.1 1.0 4.1
Daiwa SB Investments 0.3 0.0 1.0 4.1
Shinkin Central Bank -0.2 0.1 1.0 4.1
Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance 0.2 0.1 1.0 4.2
Mitsubishi UFJ Sec -0.3 0.2 1.0 4.2
NLI Research 1.3 -0.1 1.1 4.3
Daiwa Research 0.5 0.1 1.1 4.4
Informa Global Markets 0.5 0.1 1.1 4.4
Norinchukin Research 0.6 0.1 1.1 4.4
Monex 0.7 0.1 1.1 4.5
Daiichi Life Research 0.7 0.1 1.1 4.5
Nikko Cordial Securities 0.6 0.2 1.2 4.8
Sumitomo Mitsui AM 0.7 0.3 1.2 4.9
—————————————————————-

Stock Investing

(Writing by Hideyuki Sano; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

PREVIEW-Japan Q4 GDP seen +1.0 pct q/q, +4.1 pct annualised