PREVIEW-US Sept retail sales seen rising 0.4 pct

WHAT: September U.S. retail sales

WHEN: Friday, Oct. 15 at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT)

REUTERS FORECASTS: Retail Sales Ex-autos

Median +0.4 pct +0.4 pct

Minimum -0.1 pct -0.4 pct

Maximum +0.8 pct +0.7 pct

Prior +0.4 pct +0.6 pct

Number of forecasts 73 68


U.S. retail sales probably rose about 0.4 percent in
September, about even with August’s gain and adding to a modest
growth trend that resumed in July. However, many analysts
attribute at least part of this to a rise in gasoline prices,
with sales elsewhere growing at a more gradual pace. The report
is based on dollar receipts and not volume, so an increase in
prices can push up the measure of sales.

U.S. retailers reported same-store sales rose 2.8 percent in
September, helped by a late start to the back-to-school season.
Overall U.S. auto sales were up 29 percent from a year earlier,
but the daily selling rate had slipped about 4 percent in
September from August. Excluding autos, analysts had forecast a
0.4 percent growth in September sales.


An as-expected 0.4 percent gain in retail sales would
support stocks, which have been rallying in recent weeks on
evidence consumers are starting to spend again and the economy
will avoid a double-dip recession, while a lower-than-expected
result would likely reinforce concerns about the economy and
push the market lower.

A positive report could weigh on bond prices, which have
been buoyed by anticipation of further monetary easing by the
Federal Reserve. An above-consensus reading could help lift the
slumping dollar, while weaker-than-expected data would likely
see the dollar resume its slide.


* UBS: Autos and gas probably added to total retail sales in
September, but we forecast only a modest rise in other sales.
Even so, our forecast suggests a 2 percent pace for real
consumer spending growth, in line with H1. It appears to us
that consumer confidence is rising again in October, consistent
with more support for spending.

*BMO CAPITAL MARKETS: The September retail sales report
should show a moderate pickup in sales, consistent with real
consumer spending growing about 2 percent in Q3. With consumers
accounting for two-thirds of the economy, this means the
economy is still likely growing at a sub-par rate of 2 percent
(or less given state/local cutbacks and housing weakness).
Consequently, the labor market is not creating jobs fast enough
to reduce the unemployment rate, especially not with local
governments swinging the cost-cutting ax to address crumbling
property-tax revenues (another symptom of the foreclosure

* IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT: Retail sales are expected to increase
0.5 percent in September overall and by 0.4 percent, excluding
autos. Autos sales increased due to some release of pent-up
demand. Sales at gasoline stations will probably be pushed up
again by higher prices. Building material outlet sales were
probably little changed, and other retail channels are expected
to exhibit modest growth in September after a relatively strong
August. Consumers are still cautious and consumer confidence is
at low levels.
(Polling by Bangalore Unit; reporting by David Lawder;
editing by Andre Grenon)

PREVIEW-US Sept retail sales seen rising 0.4 pct