REFILE-PREVIEW-China May exports seen strong, euro yet to bite

(Refiles to show April trade balance was $1.7 bln, not -$1.7
bln)

* WHAT: Chinese trade data for May

* WHEN: Thursday, June 10; no fixed time

REUTERS FORECASTS:
(Exports and imports in pct chg y/y, trade balance in
$billions)

No.
OF

MEDIAN RANGE Apr/10 May/09
FORECASTS
Exports 32.0 25.0/41.2 30.5 -26.4
32
Imports 45.0 29.4/55.0 49.7 -25.2
32
Trade balance 8.8 1.1/16.8 1.7 13.4
30

* FACTORS TO WATCH:

The European sovereign debt crisis has become a big concern
for the Chinese export sector. But 32 economists polled by
Reuters forecast stronger annual export growth in May than
April, with other markets more than making up for any slack in
Europe.

China’s import growth, however, may ease a touch as a
moderate tightening campaign by the government weighs on
domestic activity.

As a result, China’s trade surplus in May is likely to have
expanded, with sequential momentum pointing to even wider
surpluses in coming months.

* MARKET IMPACT:

A strong export reading would be good news for the domestic
market as investors have worried that China’s factories may
lose steam because of Europe’s debt troubles.

Moderating imports could also be cast in a positive light.
The drop would partly reflect cheaper global commodities,
easing fears about imported inflation, and would suggest that
domestic demand is slowing a touch, allowing Beijing to hold
off from any drastic tightening.

A big jump in exports could rekindle foreign calls for
China to let the yuan resume its appreciation, but the European
uncertainties will continue to give the Chinese government
reason to remain cautious.

For China’s trade figures in April. [ID:nTOE649026]

China indicators fixed page: (ECONCN: )

All China economic data (CN/DATA: )

Balance Exp
Imp
ANZ 8.8 33.0
45.5
Bank of China 9.0 31.0
47.0
Bank of Communications 6.9 30.0
44.0
Barclays Capital ~ 32.0
41.0
BNP Paribas 6.0 28.5
43.3
BOC International 14.0 41.2
48.0
Capital Economics 9.1 28.0
39.0
CEBM 16.0 28.4
29.4
China Merchants Bank 7.8 30.8
43.0
CICC 8.5 33.5
46.0
Citi 9.7 33.0
44.0
CITIC Securities 6.6 36.4
51.2
Daiwa Capital Markets 2.2 30.1
50.3
Donghai Securities 1.1 32.0
54.0
Fortune Trust 8.0 33.0
45.0
Goldman Sachs ~ 38.0
50.0
Guotai Junan Securities 7.4 32.1
45.0
Haitong Securities 2.8 33.2
53.1
Hang Seng Bank 8.8 25.0
35.0
HSBC 8.8 28.0
39.0
IFR 10.0 37.5
48.5
Industrial Bank 3.0 34.4
55.0
Industrial Securities 11.5 32.0
40.2
ING 6.3 28.5
43.0
Mizuho Securities 10.0 35.0
45.0
Sealand Securities 3.0 30.0
48.6
Shanghai Securities 5.5 30.1
46.0
Shenyin & Wanguo Securities 8.1 30.3
42.7
Sinolink Securities 16.8 28.0
45.0
SJS Markets 10.0 29.6
39.4
Standard Chartered 9.6 34.0
45.0
UBS 10.2 36.0
46.0

Stock Analysis

(Reporting by Beijing Economics Team; Writing by Zhou Xin;
Editing by Kazunori Takada)

REFILE-PREVIEW-China May exports seen strong, euro yet to bite