RPT-PREVIEW-China August loan, money growth to mark time

(Repeats story sent late on Friday)

* WHAT: China August money supply, new yuan loans

* WHEN: No fixed time. Possibly Sept. 13 around 0200 GMT
when inflation and output figures are issued. Sept. 15 at
latest

REUTERS FORECASTS:

(M2, loan growth=pct change y/y; new loans=bln yuan)

MEDIAN RANGE Jul/10 Aug/09 POLL

SIZE
M2 17.5 16.9/18.6 17.6 28.5 26
New loans 500 440/550 533 410 26
Loan growth 18.4 18.0/19.0 18.4 34.1 17

* FACTORS TO WATCH:

China’s money and credit growth probably remained broadly
steady in August, reflecting Beijing’s success in containing
loans to developers and local governments’ financing vehicles
earlier this year.

If Beijing sticks to its full-year new lending target of
7.5 trillion yuan, banks should extend an average of 460
billion yuan in local-currency loans every month from August to
December.

* MARKET IMPACT:

The moderation in credit and money growth in recent months
has been well flagged in policy announcements since the start
of the year and priced in by the market.

Any upside surprise in lending might cast doubt on whether
Beijing can order banks to swiftly bring off-balance-sheet
loans back onto their books without breaching the 2010 loan
ceiling.

A strong figure may also arouse suspicions that China is
quietly allowing banks to resume lending more freely to local
governments’ financing vehicles as part of efforts to avoid an
abrupt slowdown in economic growth.

Detailed forecasts:

M2 Loans Loan growth
ANZ 17.5 500 ^
BoA Merrill Lynch 18.1 500 18.4
BOC International 17.5 480 18.4
BoCom International 17.5 460 18.4
Capital Economics 18.1 500 ^
CCB International 17.5 500 ^
CEBM 17.8 ^ ^
CCIEE 17.0 500 18.0
(China Center for International Economic Exchanges)
China Merchants Bank 17.6 440 18.3
CICC 17.3 500 ^
CITIC Securities 17.5 550 18.0
Donghai Securities 17.3 510 18.0
Essence Securities 17.0 495 19.0
Guotai Junan Securities 18.1 450 ^
Haitong Securities 17.3 490 ^
HSBC 17.0 500 ^
Huatai United Securities 18.0 480 18.4
Industrial Bank 16.9 440 18.3
Industrial Securities 17.0 500 18.4
Minsheng Securities 17.5 500 18.5
Morgan Stanley 17.5 500 18.5
Qilu Securities 18.6 550 ^
Royal Bank of Scotland ^ 520 ^
Shanghai Securities 17.8 480 18.4
Shenyin & Wanguo Securities 17.5 550 18.6
Sinolink Securities 17.1 495 18.5
UBS 17.8 460 18.4

^ not available

* For China’s July loan and credit data: [ID:nTOE66A00F]

* China indicator fixed page: (ECONCN: )

* All Chinese economic data (CN/DATA: )
** To read more previews on major Chinese economic data over
the coming weeks, click [PRE-CN-MCE]

(Reporting by Beijing Economics Team; Writing by Langi
Chiang; Editing by Ken Wills)

RPT-PREVIEW-China August loan, money growth to mark time