RPT-PREVIEW-China economy still cooling, inflation creeping up

(Repeat of story sent late on Friday)

* WHAT: China Aug data from the National Bureau of
Statistics

* WHEN: Monday, Sept. 13 at 0200 GMT

REUTERS FORECASTS: (all expressed as pct chg y/y)

POLL

MEDIAN RANGE JUL/10 AUG/09 SIZE
CPI 3.4 3.0/3.7 3.3 -1.2 27
PPI 4.5 3.6/5.3 4.8 -7.9 26
Ind. Production 13.0 11.8/14.3 13.4 12.3 26
Retail Sales 17.8 17.5/18.4 17.9 15.4 26
Urban FAI 24.5 23.2/25.2 24.9 33.0 27

* FACTORS TO WATCH:

The normalisation of monetary policy, destocking, a drive
against property speculation and the gentle withdrawal of
fiscal stimulus are all likely to have weighed on the
production side of the economy.

Bad weather across much of China will not have helped
either and will have helped push up inflation by boosting the
cost of food, which makes up a third of the consumer price
index.

* MARKET IMPACT:

Investors might choose to ignore the projected slowdown in
capital spending and factory output growth because the more
forward-looking purchasing managers’ indexes released on Sept.
1 showed a modest rebound, cheering markets worldwide.
[ID:nTOE68001O]

Prices rose sharply last month, according to the PMI
surveys, so the risk on inflation is probably tilted to the
upside.

A CPI reading that is stronger than consensus could revive
speculation of an increase in interest rates since bank deposit
rates are already well in negative territory, and put pressure
on local stock markets.

Detailed forecasts:

CPI PPI IP RS FAI
ANZ 3.5 5.0 13.5 17.9 24.9
BoA Merrill Lynch 3.7 4.8 13.0 18.0 24.5
BOC International 3.5 4.1 13.0 17.5 24.2
BoCom International 3.4 5.3 12.9 17.8 24.2
Capital Economics 3.7 5.0 12.7 17.5 24.6
CCB International 3.5 5.0 13.8 17.8 24.5
CEBM 3.5 4.0 14.3 17.6 24.5
CCIEE 3.0 4.0 14.0 18.0 25.0
(China Center for International Economic Exchanges)
China Merchants Bank 3.5 5.0 13.6 17.7 24.4
CICC 3.6 4.0 12.8 18.0 24.5
CITIC Securities 3.4 4.3 13.0 18.2 24.6
Donghai Securities 3.2 5.1 13.3 17.5 24.3
Essence Securities 3.0 4.0 14.0 18.0 25.0
Guotai Junan Securities 3.6 4.0 12.2 18.4 24.6
Haitong Securities 3.4 4.1 12.2 18.1 23.2
HSBC 3.4 4.5 13.3 18.0 24.5
Huatai United Securities 3.4 5.0 13.0 18.0 24.1
Industrial Bank 3.4 4.7 13.4 17.8 24.6
Industrial Securities 3.5 4.5 13.5 18.0 24.6
Minsheng Securities 3.1 4.2 13.2 17.8 25.0
Morgan Stanley 3.4 4.5 12.8 17.8 24.2
Qilu Securities 3.2 3.7 14.0 18.0 24.6
Royal Bank of Scotland 3.2 ^ 12.4 17.5 24.5
Shanghai Securities 3.2 3.6 11.8 17.7 24.2
Shenyin & Wanguo Securities 3.6 5.0 ^ ^ 25.2
Sinolink Securities 3.5 4.4 13.0 17.8 24.3
UBS 3.7 4.8 12.5 17.8 24.0

* For China’s July loan and credit data: [ID:nTOE66A00F]

* China indicator fixed page: (ECONCN: )

* All Chinese economic data [CN/DATA]
** To read more previews on major Chinese economic data over
the coming weeks, click [PRE-CN-MCE]
(Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Writing by Alan Wheatley;
Editing by Kim Coghill)

RPT-PREVIEW-China economy still cooling, inflation creeping up