RPT-PREVIEW-China set for another bumper trade surplus

(Repeats ahead of data release on Friday)

* WHAT: Chinese trade data for August

* WHEN: Friday, Sept 10; no fixed time

REUTERS FORECASTS:

(Exports and imports in pct chg y/y, trade balance in $bln)

POLL

MEDIAN RANGE Jul/10 Aug/09
SIZE
Exports 35.0 29.0/44.7 38.1 -23.4
28
Imports 26.1 20.0/37.4 22.7 -17.0
28
Trade balance 27.1 20.0/40.0 28.7 15.7 27

* FACTORS TO WATCH

All but one economist polled by Reuters forecast that
exports grew more strongly than imports in August, leaving
China with a trade surplus close to July’s 18-month high of
$28.7 billion.

That would propel the year-to-date surplus past $100
billion — the target for all of 2010 set by the Ministry of
Commerce — and could set alarm bells ringing in the U.S.
Congress, which has scheduled hearings on the yuan for later
this month.

* MARKET IMPACT

The robustness of external demand is perhaps the biggest
uncertainty overhanging the Chinese economy, and export growth
above 30 percent would ease worries of an abrupt slowdown. That
should bode well for domestic stocks.

Strong imports, in defiance of Beijing’s efforts to rein in
credit and cool the property market, could help the currencies
of countries that export commodities and inputs to China.

Balance Exports
Imports
ANZ 25.7 31.9
26.2
BoA Merrill Lynch 20.0 30.0
30.0
BOC International Securities 30.6 34.0
23.1
Bocom International 30.0 43.0
33.0
Capital Economics 30.0 40.0
31.0
CCB International Securities 26.3 29.0
22.0
CEBM ~ 30.0
26.0
CCIEE 24.0 32.0
21.0
China Merchants Bank 40.0 44.7
24.6
CICC 31.0 36.0
25.0
CITIC Securities 26.0 40.0
35.0
Donghai Securities 23.0 34.0
21.0
Essence Securities 21.2 36.0
37.0
Guotai Junan Securities 27.1 37.0
30.3
Haitong Securities 20.0 31.0
28.0
HSBC 35.6 37.0
21.0
Huatai United Securities 22.0 29.2
26.8
Industrial Bank 25.0 40.7
37.4
Industrial Securities 27.6 31.0
23.0
ING 28.2 37.5
30.0
Minsheng Securities 29.0 30.0
20.0
Morgan Stanley 30.0 35.0
25.0
Qilu Securities 21.0 34.0
27.0
Royal Bank of Scotland 30.0 37.0
23.0
Shanghai Securities 25.0 35.0
30.7
Shenyin Wanguo Securities 22.0 35.0
34.0
Sinolink Securities 28.8 33.0
24.0
UBS 29.6 35.0
25.0 ~ Not available

* Report on July’s data: [ID:nTOE67904G]

* China indicator fixed page: (ECONCN: )

* All China economic data [CN/DATA]
** To read more previews on major Chinese economic data over
the coming weeks, click [PRE-CN-MCE]
(Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Ken Wills)

RPT-PREVIEW-China set for another bumper trade surplus