RPT-PREVIEW-China’s growth is slower but still fast

(Repeats ahead of data expected on Thursday)

* WHAT: China Q3 GDP and September economic indicators

* WHEN: likely Thursday, October 21 at 0200 GMT

REUTERS FORECASTS:

(all expressed as percent change year/year)

POLL
MEDIAN RANGE PVS YR AGO SIZE GDP
9.5 8.8/10.3 10.3 9.1 28 CPI 3.6

3.3/3.7 3.5 -0.8 31 PPI 4.1
3.8/5.0 4.3 -7.0 30 Ind. Production 13.6
12.0/15.0 13.9 13.9 30 Retail Sales 18.5
17.5/18.5 18.4 15.5 30 Urban FAI 24.6
22.0/25.0 24.8 33.3 30

(GDP is for the third quarter; FAI is for the first three
quarters)

FACTORS TO WATCH

All evidence so far points to the Chinese economy growing
less quickly in the third quarter than in the first half, but
much of the slowdown can be explained by a higher base effect
after 2009’s solid late-year recovery.

A growth rate of 9.5 percent would show that China’s
economy is on solid footing, banishing worries about a “double
dip”.

Industrial production may have slowed slightly in September
as many local governments adopted harsh measures to reduce
energy consumption in August and September.

Fixed-asset investment, the most important driver of
economic growth, is also expected to have slowed due to
Beijing’s twin clampdown on local government borrowing and the
property sector.

Consumer inflation was estimated to have risen further in
September, driven largely by food prices.

* MARKET IMPACT

A modest slowdown and relatively mild inflation would be
welcomed by domestic and overseas investors alike.

With the economy in a “sweet spot” of strong growth and
modest inflation, China is unlikely to adopt stringent
tightening steps. An example of the milder form of tightening
that is likely came this week when Beijing introduced a
selective, temporary increase of banks’ require reserves.

There is evidence that capital is already flooding into
China, and a stronger-than-expected batch of September data
could attract more cash and further stoke the recent rally in
the Chinese stock market.

BREAKDOWN OF FORECASTS (pct change y/y)

GDP CPI PPI IP RS FAI Agricultural
Bank of China 9.1 3.6 4.7 12.9 18.9 ^ ANZ

9.5 3.7 4.8 15.0 18.4 24.5 BNP
Paribas 9.5 3.4 4.5 13.5 18.2 24.8
BoA-Merrill Lynch 9.5 3.6 4.5 13.6 18.5 24.7
BOC International 8.8 3.5 3.8 14.0 18.5
24.5 Bocom International 9.5 3.6 4.1 13.5 18.3
24.4 CCB International 9.5 3.6 4.0 14.2
18.5 24.8 CCIEE 10.2 3.4 4.0 12.5
18.3 24.6 CEBM ^ 3.7 4.7
13.3 18.5 24.6 China Merchants Bank
^ 3.4 4.4 14.5 18.6 24.4 CICC

^ 3.6 3.9 13.0 18.6 24.9 Daiwa

9.3 3.7 4.1 13.7 18.5 24.6 Daton Securities

9.5 3.4 4.5 13.5 18.0 24.5 Deutsche Bank

9.0 3.7 5.0 12.0 18.1 24.2 Donghai Securities

10.1 3.6 4.0 13.5 18.6 24.0 Essence Securities

^ 3.7 5.0 14.1 18.5 22.0 Forecast PTE

9.5 3.7 4.1 14.2 18.7 24.7 Fortune Trust

9.4 3.7 4.1 14.0 18.6 24.6 Goldman Sachs

9.3 3.6 3.9 14.2 18.6 25.0 Guosen
Securities ^ 3.7 5.0 14.1 18.5 22.0
Guotai Junan 9.0 3.3 3.9 ^ 17.5 23.9
Heng Seng Bank ^ 3.6 ^ 13.5 18.2
24.5 High Frequency 10.3 3.4 3.9 13.6 ^
24.2 HSBC 9.5 3.7 4.1 14.0
18.3 24.6 ING 9.3 3.3 4.1 14.9
18.7 24.9 Minsheng Securities 9.3 3.4 4.0
13.5 18.2 25.0 Mizuho Securities
9.8 3.4 4.2 13.5 18.5 24.8 Nomura

9.5 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ OCBC Bank

9.3 3.6 4.2 13.7 18.5 24.6 Royal Bank of Scotland

9.2 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Shanghai Securities

9.8 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Sinolink Securities

9.3 3.4 4.0 13.5 18.6 24.5 Standard Chartered

9.6 3.6 3.9 13.4 18.5 24.5 UBS

9.4 3.6 4.2 13.5 18.8 24.7 (FAI is
expressed as YTD)

LINKS * China’s indicators fixed page (ECONCN: ) * China’s
surprise hike of reserve requirements [ID:nTOE69A044] * China’s
forex reserves and bank loans data [ID:nTOE69A020] * China’s
trade data for September [ID:nTOE69C01D]
(Reporting by Beijing economics team)

RPT-PREVIEW-China’s growth is slower but still fast