RPT-PREVIEW-US Oct retail sales seen rising 0.7 pct

(Repeats item initially run on Friday)

WHAT: October U.S. retail sales

WHEN: Nov. 15 at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT)

REUTERS FORECASTS: Retail Sales Ex-Autos

Median: +0.7 PCT +0.4 PCT

Minimum: +0.5 PCT +0.1 PCT

Maximum: +1.1 PCT +0.7 PCT

Prior: +0.6 PCT +0.4 PCT

Number of forecasts 33 32

FACTORS TO WATCH

U.S. retail sales probably rose for the fourth straight
month in October, lifted by an increase in vehicle sales which
were forecast to hit a two-year high in October. Even excluding
autos, retails sales likely rose for a fourth consecutive
month.

Retail sales last month also were driven higher by rising
gasoline prices.

Solid retail sales could provide a much needed spark to
consumer demand in the fourth quarter. But growth could be
limited by high unemployment and foreclosures.

MARKET IMPACT

A strong result in retail sales could be a shot in the arm
for the stock market, with equities investors currently looking
for reasons to extend the rally and analysts worried that the
weak state of consumers has left companies in no position to
pass on rising input costs. A strong reading would add to
declines in the bond market, however, with investors succumbing
to doubts about how effective the Federal Reserve’s Treasuries
buying plan will keeping yields down. The dollar would likely
benefit.

ANALYST COMMENTS

BMO CAPITAL MARKETS

“Retail sales have been on a roll of late and likely rose a
solid 0.5 percent in October, supported by firmer employment,
higher stock prices, and less-strict credit standards. New
vehicle sales jumped 4.2 percent in the month and chain-store
sales rose modestly. A solid gain at retail stores would anchor
another 2 percent-plus increase in real consumer spending in Q4
— not great, but respectable given high rates of unemployment
and foreclosure.”

BARCLAYS CAPITAL

“We expect retail sales to increase 0.7 percent in October,
following a 0.6 percent rise in September and a 0.7 percent
gain in August. This largely reflects a boost from gasoline
sales, which will likely rise in line with prices, and from
vehicle sales, which rose to a two-year high in October
(excluding clash-for-clunkers sales). Excluding autos, we
expect a 0.5 percent increase; stripping out autos, gasoline
and building materials, we are looking for a 0.3 percent rise
in “core” retail sales, representing a solid start to
underlying consumer demand in Q4.
(Polling by Bangalore unit)
(Reporting by Nancy Waitz. Additional reporting by Burton
Frierson and Wanfeng Zhou in New York; Editing by Kenneth
Barry)

RPT-PREVIEW-US Oct retail sales seen rising 0.7 pct