SCENARIOS-Struggling Spyker, Saab face few options

 AMSTERDAM/STOCKHOLM, April 12 (Reuters) - Loss-making Dutch
car maker Spyker (SPYKR.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) said production of Saab cars has
been put on hold until it has enough cash to pay suppliers, as
it struggles to save the ailing Swedish brand. [ID:nLDE73B05T]
 
 CAN SPYKER STAVE OFF COLLAPSE?
 That will depend on how quickly it can arrange funds to pay
its most immediate bills. The options include:
 * Additional bank loans. Spyker said it is in talks with
U.S. and European banks for a new 500 million euro ($723.4
million) loan which would repay an existing EIB loan for 400
million euros and provide additional funds. Russian businessman
Vladimir Antonov's banks are also willing to lend to Spyker, but
the amount would be less than 400 million euros. In theory, a
bridging loan or short-term credit facility should be the
fastest way to borrow.
 * Sale and leaseback of Saab's real estate assets, which
were valued at 248.4 million euros according to the 2010 annual
report, possibly to Antonov or to another financial institution.
This requires approval of the Swedish National Debt Office (NDO)
which could take some time.
 * A new strategic shareholder. According to Spyker's 2010
annual report, as of March 31, 2011, Chief Executive Victor
Muller owns 25-30 percent, Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Development Co.
has 15-20 percent, Gemini Investment Fund has 5-10 percent, and
Brendan O'Toole has 5-10 percent.
 Antonov wants to return as a shareholder, and could pump in
new funds if Spyker issued new shares to him, diluting other
shareholders. But longer term the group needs to find a new
strategic investor with deep pockets who can provide not just
funding but also technical expertise, or access to new markets.
 AEK analyst Martin Crum said he was confident Spyker could
overcome its short-term liquidity problems and that it would not
collapse because there were so many interested stakeholders
involved -- including the Swedish government, shareholders who
want to keep Spyker afloat, and suppliers who have a long-term
interest in Saab's survival.
 "Time is the big negative, this has to be dealt with
swiftly," he said. "Muller is of course a brilliant dealmaker.
We have seen that in the recent past and you have to give the
man some credit. If somebody can do it, he can," said Crum.
 
 WHAT HAPPENS IF SPYKER CAN'T MUSTER THE MONEY QUICKLY?
 Under Swedish law, a company or its creditors can apply for
bankruptcy proceedings to be opened at a district court for the
region where the company is based, which in Saab's case would be
the small district court in Vanersborg in south-west Sweden. 
 Once the application is registered, the court decides how to
proceed and appoints an administrator to settle the debts.
 An alternative, which has already been employed once by
Saab, is to place the company into a process of corporate
restructuring.
 Under this process, which Saab entered in 2009 after GM made
clear its intention to cease funding the company and exited
later that year, the company is granted temporary protection
from creditors while a court-appointed administrator together
with management seeks to restructure it into a viable business.
 
 WHO MIGHT RESCUE SAAB/SPYKER IF IT COLLAPSES?
Amsterdam-listed Spyker has a stock market value of about
$100 million. Aside from private equity funds which might see
the company as a turnaround candidate, the more obvious
potential buyers are the same names that expressed an interest a
year ago when Spyker bought Saab from GM for $400 million.
 China's state-run Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co or
BAIC -- the country's fifth-largest auto maker, which harbours
global ambitions -- and Swedish luxury sports car maker
Koenigsegg Automotive AB, both expressed interest more than a
year ago.
 China's Zhejiang Geely, the parent of Hong Kong-listed Geely
Automobile Holdings (0175.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), bought Saab's long-time Swedish
rival Volvo Car Corp from Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) for $1.3 billion
in cash and a $200 million note issued to Ford.[ID:nTOE67103B]
 This time around, they may be able to pick up the Swedish
car maker more cheaply, because analysts said Saab is in a worse
position now, given that the 9-5 series has been launched, and
so there is no longer suspense over its commercial prospects.
 There is no sign that Sweden's powerful Wallenberg business
family would step in to purchase or aid Saab.
 As the key stakeholder in the Saab-Scania group, which for
nearly three decades until the mid-1990s housed truck maker
Scania (SCVb.ST: Quote, Profile, Research), defence firm Saab (SAABb.ST: Quote, Profile, Research) and Saab
Automobile, the family's investment vehicle supported the sale
of Saab to General Motors.
 The carmaker struggled to sustain profitability also during
the Saab-Scania era, according to Scania's long-time Chief
Executive Leif Ostling, and when Saab faced closure as GM
prepared to pull out, the Wallenberg's holding company Investor
AB (INVEb.ST: Quote, Profile, Research) was not among the bidders.
 ($1=.6912 Euro)
 (Reporting by Sara Webb and Aaron Gray-Block in Amsterdam,
Niklas Pollard in Stockholm, and Helen Massy Beresford in Paris;
Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)

SCENARIOS-Struggling Spyker, Saab face few options